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EconoQuantum
On-line version ISSN 2007-9869Print version ISSN 1870-6622
Abstract
RAMIREZ-VALVERDE, Gustavo and RAMIREZ-VALVERDE, Benito. Statistical model for deaths and positive cases of COVID-19 in Mexico. EconoQuantum [online]. 2021, vol.18, n.1, pp.1-20. Epub Apr 14, 2021. ISSN 2007-9869. https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v18i1.7223.
Objective:
To apply a statistical model of the number of deaths and positive cases of COVID-19 in Mexico, to study the behavior of the pandemic in order to look for alternatives and public policies that can mitigate the impact of the damage of the disease in the society.
Methodology:
The official information provided by the Ministry of Health was used according to the number of positive cases of COVID-19, and the number of deaths caused by this disease in Mexico.
Limitations:
The limitations for this research are the reduced number of data and the possibility of failures in accounting for infections and deaths.
Originality:
It estimates a statistical model based on the data of the pandemic in Mexico and its application.
Results:
The Gompertz with four parameters model was selected.
Conclusion:
The model shows an adequate adjustment and its usefulness in its application at regional levels and for future outbreaks of the disease, in order to take measures and develop public policies that allow reducing the damage caused by the pandemic.
Keywords : Gompertz Model; public health; nonlinear least squares.
