Abstract

GUILLEN, Arturo. "The party is over" The global crisis and the generalized recession. Economía UNAM [online]. 2009, vol.6, n.16, pp.23-43. ISSN 1665-952X.

The aim of this article is to analyze the origins and causes of the global crisis, as well as its impact on the real economy. The crisis, which began in the U.S. economy in the first half of 2007, turned into a grave financial crisis in August of that year, and is leading to a global recession in 2008. The author maintains that the current situation is a debt-deflation crisis, but with very specific characteristics. He points to the limits of the "mode of accumulation dominated by the financial sector" established in the 1980s based on securitization. Since the center of the crisis is in the United States, it threatens the role of the dollar as the system's key currency. Both the causes and the repercussions of the crisis are global. There is no "decoupling." The United States continues to be the world economy's "buyer of last resort." While some countries, like the so-called BRIC, will continue growing (albeit at a slower rate), most will go into recession. Like in all of capitalism's "great crises," if anything defines the current situation, it is uncertainty. It will take time to correct the "financial excesses" and the credit crunch. Central banks have very little maneuvering room. A prolonged period dominated by the tendency to stagnate seems to be the most probable scenario.

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