Abstract

FIGUEROA-HERNANDEZ, Esther; PEREZ-SOTO, Francisco; GODINEZ-MONTOYA, Lucila  and  PEREZ-FIGUEROA, Rebeca Alejandra. Coffee prices in production and exports worldwide. Rev. mex. econ. finanz [online]. 2019, vol.14, n.1, pp.41-56. ISSN 2448-6795.  https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v14i1.358.

To analyze the effect of prices of coffee groups classified by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), as well as the prices of the New York and London stock exchanges on the production and exports of coffee, two models were developed and estimated by principal component regression. Export and different prices were used as explanatory variables to verify the relation of world production. In the case of exports, production and prices were used. It was concluded that the quantity of coffee produced has an inverse relationship with the exports of the product and a direct relationship with the prices of Robusta and of the London futures exchange; while for exports, it was the future prices of the New York stock exchange, those of Brazilian natives, and that of others. This means that the international prices were those that influenced, to a greater extent, the variability of world production and coffee exports.

Keywords : worldwide coffee production; ICO coffee prices; Coffee exports; New York and London futures exchange; Principal components; A10; C01.

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