Abstract

TAQUIA GUTIERREZ, José Antonio. Impact of Bayesian Approach to Demand Management in Supply Chains for the Consumption of Dynamic Products. Comp. y Sist. [online]. 2023, vol.27, n.2, pp.545-552.  Epub Sep 18, 2023. ISSN 2007-9737.  https://doi.org/10.13053/cys-27-2-4382.

Bayesian approach was applied to the management of the supply chain in a dynamic food product portfolio for a company in the retail sector. We propose a quasi-experimental method considering pre and posttest and a control group. The sample size of 93 products, out of a population of 120 products from two categories: classic sauces and gourmet sauces. R and Python programming languages were used and libraries for random sampling of the a priori distribution of the products to obtain posterior values área presented on the research. Forecast accuracy increased with the Bayesian approach by 10%. Likewise, it was possible to reduce the coverage inventory from 2 to 1.2 months and the discrepancy between the values of the Bayesian estimate with the traditional method was possible to reach a 5% error in the variation.

Keywords : Supply chain; Bayesian approach; retail products; critical fractile; balanced operations.

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