Abstract

LOPEZ HERRERA, Francisco  and  RODRIGUEZ BENAVIDES, Domingo. ¿El desarrollo del mercado accionario genera crecimiento económico en México?: Un análisis de series de tiempo. Econ: teor. práct [online]. 2010, n.32, pp.33-54. ISSN 2448-7481.

This paper shows the results of cointegration analysis carried out to look for a stable and steady long-run relationship between the Mexican Stock Market Index (IPC) and the Volume Index of Industrial Production (IVPI ). In the literature is argued that the expectations formed in the stock market tend to affect the future values of the indicators of economic activity, for example see Ron (2001). By means of an error correction model we show evidence supporting the hypothesis of a stable, long-run relationship between the Stock Market and Industrial production Indexes; a result consistent with the findings of Ron (2001). Nevertheless, we find out only weak evidence about causality running from IPC to IVPI for a more recent period than that covered by Ron's study.

Keywords : stock market; economic activity; financial development; economic growth; cointegration.

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