Abstract

RODRIGUEZ CHAVEZ, Oscar. How would the internal migration have been without high levels of violence in Mexico? A municipal counterfactual analysis of the last two decades. Estud. demogr. urbanos [online]. 2021, vol.36, n.3, pp.921-962.  Epub Nov 22, 2021. ISSN 2448-6515.  https://doi.org/10.24201/edu.v36i3.1984.

Using counterfactual analysis, this paper analyzes the causal effects of violence on internal emigration rates in the municipalities with highest violence in Mexico during the last two decades. Results show that if municipalities with highest violence had low homicide rates, their internal emigration would have been between 10.4 and 21.8 % lower than what was observed, particularly after the beginning of the so-called Mexican Drug War. Overall, findings shed light on the increase of violence-induced internal displacement in some regions of the nation.

Keywords : violence; forced internal displacement; counterfactual analysis; Mexican drug war; homicides; internal migration.

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