Abstract

SILVA, Eliud  and  OVIN, Adrián. Approximation to mortality curves with a non-parametric proposal: The case of the Heligman and Pollard model. Estud. demogr. urbanos [online]. 2019, vol.34, n.1, pp.129-167. ISSN 2448-6515.  https://doi.org/10.24201/edu.v34i1.1805.

A non-parametric method is proposed to approximate mortality curves with emphasis on those coming from the Heligman and Pollard model (HP), where loss functions and controlled smoothness are applied such that the trend of the observed mortality data is as close as possible to the curve of mortality produced by the HP model. It can be appreciated with several estimates that the best fit results are obtained for male mortality, and even more so after 12 years old. Using this perspective, it is provided a reference range of the smoothing parameters to approximate those mortality curves that would be obtained after applying the HP model.

Keywords : Heligman and Pollard model; smoothness; smoothing parameter; trends; mortality curve; generalized least squares.

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