Abstract

IBARRA LOPEZ, Ignacio  and  CORTES MORENO, Jorge David. Once upon a time there was a Trump effect. Internet information and the exchange rate. Estud. Econ. (México, D.F.) [online]. 2021, vol.36, n.2, pp.363-398.  Epub Feb 21, 2022. ISSN 0186-7202.  https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v36i2.423.

Using official data (Banco de México, INEGI) and large-scale information from the Internet (Google Trends, Twitter), a VAR model and Granger causality tests are used to model the behavior of the peso/dollar exchange rate. Trump’s online popularity, along with messages on Twitter regarding the relationship between Mexico and the United States, generated a feeling of concern which was reflected in the exchange rate, at least in the short term. The main learning derived from these findings is that the information generated in social networks allows us to know the behavior of fundamental economic variables.

Keywords : Big Data; tipo de cambio; Twitter; NAFTA; F31; F470; C89.

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