Abstract

SERRANO, Franklin; SUMMA, Ricardo  and  AIDAR, Gabriel. Exogenous interest rate and exchange rate dynamics under elastic expectations. Inv. Econ [online]. 2021, vol.80, n.318, pp.3-31.  Epub Nov 30, 2021. ISSN 0185-1667.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2021.318.8081.

A theory analyzing the short run dynamics of nominal exchange rates under exogenous interest rates and free imperfect international capital markets is presented. Introducing elastic exchange rate expectations leads to cumulative changes in the spot and forward exchange rates in the same direction. We find that free floating exchange rate regimes are intrinsically unstable, as the nominal exchange rate is an institutional or policy variable that has no ‘fundamental equilibrium’ level. Implications for monetary policy and exchange market interventions of this potential instability are derived. Our results help to explain both the empirical prevalence of dirty floating exchange rate regimes and some aspects of the uncovered interest parity ‘failure’.

Keywords : Exchange rate dynamics; exogenous interest rates; dirty floating.

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