<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-0934</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de ciencias agrícolas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-0934</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-09342025000200103</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.29312/remexca.v16i2.3396</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Expectativas de precios y producción de hortalizas orgánicas: el caso de México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Expectations for prices and production of organic vegetables: the case of Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Brambila-Paz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José de Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rojas-Rojas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[María Magdalena]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pérez-Cerecedo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Verónica]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Texcoco Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Texcoco Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Interamericano de Cooperación para la Agricultura  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-09342025000200103&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-09342025000200103&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-09342025000200103&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen A medida que la oferta de productos orgánicos en el mercado aumenta, su precio tiende a disminuir, a menos que la demanda de estos productos se incremente y los consumidores estén dispuestos a pagar un precio adicional con relación al producto convencional. El objetivo de esta investigación fue medir la tendencia del sobreprecio de las hortalizas orgánicas en relación con las hortalizas convencionales y estimar el crecimiento del mercado de hortalizas en función de la introducción o sustitución de los productos orgánicos por los convencionales en México. Para los cálculos se emplearon ecuaciones diferenciales en tiempo continuo para estimar la función de producción y las proyecciones con series de 1990 al 2020 para productos convencionales y de 2015 al 2020 para productos orgánicos. El sobreprecio de los productos orgánicos disminuyó en el tiempo con tendencia a igualarse con los productos convencionales. Espárrago, fresa y tomate rojo saladette expandieron el mercado con su entrada, principalmente el de exportación por tener mayor ventaja competitiva. En contraste, brócoli, calabacita italiana (zucchini), lechuga romana, pepino pickle y tomate verde no expandieron el mercado, esto significa que sustituyeron al producto convencional. Se concluye que el diferencial de precios de los productos orgánicos disminuye en el tiempo al igualarse con los productos convencionales y los productos orgánicos altamente competitivos expandieron el mercado.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract As the supply of organic products in the market increases, their price tends to decrease unless the demand for these products increases and consumers are willing to pay an additional price compared to the conventional product. This research aimed to measure the trend of the premium of organic vegetables over the conventional vegetables and to estimate the growth of the vegetable market based on the introduction or substitution of organic products by conventional ones in Mexico. For the calculations, continuous-time differential equations were used to estimate the production function and projections with series from 1990 to 2020 for conventional products and from 2015 to 2020 for organic products. The premium of organic products decreased over time with a tendency to equal that of conventional products. Asparagus, strawberry, and saladette tomato expanded the market with their entry, mainly the export market, because they had a greater competitive advantage. In contrast, broccoli, zucchini, romaine, pickle cucumber, and husk tomato did not expand the market, which means that they replaced the conventional product. It is concluded that the price differential of organic products decreases over time as it equals that of conventional products and highly competitive organic products expanded the market.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[diferencial de precios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[productos convencionales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[productos orgánicos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[conventional products]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[organic products]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[price differential]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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