SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

vol.63 número248Régimen de acumulación, tasa deseada de utilización de la capacidad endógena y distribución del ingreso índice de autoresíndice de materiabúsqueda de artículos
Home Pagelista alfabética de revistas  

Servicios Personalizados




Links relacionados

  • No hay artículos similaresSimilares en SciELO


Investigación económica

versión impresa ISSN 0185-1667

Inv. Econ vol.63 no.248 Ciudad de México abr./jun. 2004



Reflections on Currency Crises

Reflexiones sobre las crisis monetarias

Korkut Erturk* 

*Department of Economics, University of Utah, United States <>.


Currency crises, which have increasingly become a common occurrence around the world in the 1990s, can be analyzed at three different levels. Looking at it at the national level, these crises can be seen to signify the pitfalls of betting on financial liberalization to attract foreign capital on a massive scale, where financial imbalances caused by excessive debt, in this or that form, lead to an implosion. Looked at the level of the international monetary system, many of these crises are caused by a new breed of speculative attacks that have beleaguered global financial markets in recent times where expectations tend to become self-fulfilling prophecies. Finally, these crises can also be looked at the level of the structure of international trade and the world economy, where many developing countries today face, arguably, the threat of ‘immiserizing growth’ reflecting the fallacy of composition problem inherent in a generalized strategy of export-led growth.


Las crisis monetarias, las cuales llegan a ser cada vez más un acontecimiento común alrededor del mundo en los años noventa, pueden ser analizadas en tres diferentes niveles. Observando hacia un nivel nacional, estas crisis pueden significar el escollo del juego de la liberalización financiera para atraer capital externo en una escala masiva, donde los desequilibrios financieros causados por deudas excesivas, en esta u otra forma, son producto de una implosión. Observando desde el nivel del sistema monetario internacional, muchas de estas crisis son causadas por una nueva clase de atracción especulativa que recientemente hemos sitiado en los mercados financieros globales donde las expectativas tienden a llegar a ser profecías cumplidas en sí mismas. Finalmente, estas crisis pueden ser vistas, además, desde un nivel de la estructura del comercio internacional y la economía mundial, donde la apariencia actual de muchos países en desarrollo sostiene que la amenaza de un ‘crecimiento próspero’ refleja el error de composición del problema inherente a una estrategia generalizada de crecimiento guiado por exportaciones.

JEL Classification: E32.

Texto completo disponible sólo en PDF

Full text available only in PDF format


Aghion, P., P. Bacchetta and A. Banerjee, “Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints”, European Economic Review, no. 45(7), June, 2001, pp. 1121-1150. [ Links ]

______, “A Simple Model of Monetary Policy and Currency Crises”, European Economic Review, no. 44(4-6), May, 2000, pp. 728-738. [ Links ]

Alesina, A., A. Prati and G. Tabellini, “Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and Case Study of Italy”, in R. Dornbush and M. Draghi (eds.), Public Debt Management: Theory and History, Cambridge University Press, 1990. [ Links ]

Barth, M. and T. Dinmore, “Trade Prices and Volumes in East Asia Through the Crisis”, International Finance Discussion Paper, no. 643, Washington D. C., Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1999. [ Links ]

Bensaid, B. and O. Jeanne, “The Instability of Fixed Exchange Rate Systems: When Raising the Interest Rate is Costly”, European Economic Review, no. 41, 1997, pp. 1461-1478. [ Links ]

Bhagwati, J., “Immiserizing Growth: A Geometrical Note”, The Review of Economic Studies, no. 25(3), June, 1958. [ Links ]

Calvo, G. and C. Reinhart, “Fear of Floating”, University of Maryland and NBER, mimeo, 2000. [ Links ]

Calvo, G. and C. Vegh, “Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries”, NBER Working Paper, no. 6925, 1999. [ Links ]

Chang, R. and A. Valesco, “Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy”, NBER Working Paper, no. 7272, 1999. [ Links ]

Edwards, S., “Exchange Rate Anchors, Credibility, and Inertia: A Tale of Two Cities, Chile and Mexico”, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, no. 86(2), May, 1996. [ Links ]

Eichengreen, B., Rose, A. and C. Wyplosz, “Contagious Currency Crises”, March, <>, 1997. [ Links ]

Erturk, K., “Overcapacity and the East Asian Crisis”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, no. 24(2), 2001-2002, pp. 253-275. [ Links ]

Fischer, S., “Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?”, Distinguished Lecture on Economics in, Government. Delivered at the Meetings of the Merican Economic Association, New Orleans, January 6, 2001. [ Links ]

Flood, R. and P. Garber, “Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Some Linear Examples”, Journal of International Economics, no. 17(1-2), August, 1984, pp. 1-13. [ Links ]

Gil-Diaz, F. and A. Carsten, “One Year of Solitude: Some Pilgrim Tales About Mexico’s 1994-1995 Crisis”, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, no. 86(2), May, 1996. [ Links ]

Gordon, R., “The Aftermath of the 1992 ERM Breakup: Was There a Macroeconomic Free Lunch?”, in P. Krugman (ed.), Currency Crises, The University of Chicago Press, 2000. [ Links ]

Haberger, A., “Currency Depreciation, Income and the Balance of Trade”, Journal of Political Economy, no. 58, 1950, pp. 47-60. [ Links ]

Kaplinsky, R., “If You Want to Get Somewhere Else, You Must Run at Least Twice as Fast as That: The Roots of the East Asian Crisis”, Competition and Change: The Journal of Global Business and Political Economy, no. 4(1), 2000. [ Links ]

Kigiual, N. and M. Liviatan, “The Business Cycle Associated with Exchange Rate Based Stabilization”, The World Bank Economic Review, no. 6, 1992, pp. 279-305. [ Links ]

Krugman, P., “Crises: The Price of Globalization?”, in Symposium sponsered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Gloabal Economic Integration: Opportunities and Challenges, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 24-26, 2000. [ Links ]

______, “Balance Sheets and Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises”, International Tax and Public Finance, no. 6(4), November, 1999, pp. 459-472. [ Links ]

______,“Analytical Afterthoughts on the Asian Crisis”, mimeo, 1999. [ Links ]

______, “A Model of Balance of Payment Crises”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, no. 11(3), August, 1979, pp. 311-325. [ Links ]

Laursen, S. and L.A. Metzler, “Flexible Exchange Rates and the Theory of Employment”, Review of Economics and Statistics, no. 32, 1950, pp. 281-299. [ Links ]

Maizels, A., T. Palaskas and T. Crowe, “The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Revisited”, in D. Sapsford and J. Chen (eds.), Development Economics and Policy. The Conference Volume to Celebrate the 85th Birthday of Sir Hans Singer, New York, St.Martin Press, 1998. [ Links ]

McKinnon, R., “A Common Monetary Standard or a Common Currency for Europe? Fiscal Lessons from the Unites States”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, no. 31(4), 1994, pp. 337-357. [ Links ]

Mussa, M. et al., “Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy”, IMF Occasional Paper, no. 193, 2000. [ Links ]

Lane, T. et al., “IMF-Supported Programs in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand, A Preliminary Assessment”, IMF Occasional Paper, no. 178, 1999. [ Links ]

Obstfeld, M., “Rational and Self Fulfilling Balance of Payments Crises”, American Economic Review, no. 76(1), March, 1986, pp. 72-81. [ Links ]

Prebisch, R., The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems, New York, United Nations, 1950. [ Links ]

Rodriguez, C.A., “The Argentine Stabilization Plan of December 20th”, World Development, no. 10, 1982, pp. 801-811. [ Links ]

Sapsford, D. and H. Singer, “The IMF, the World Bank and Commodity Prices: A Case of Shifting Sands?”, World Development, no. 26(9), 1999, pp. 1653-1660. [ Links ]

Sarkar, P. and H.W. Singer, “Manufactured Exports of Developing Countries and their Terms of Trade since 1965”, World Development, no. 19(4), 1991. [ Links ]

Singer, H.W., “The Distribution of Gains Between Investing and Borrowing Countries”, American Economic Review, no. 40(2), May, 1950. [ Links ]

Taylor, L. (ed.), External Liberalization, Economic Performance, and Social Policy, New York, Oxford University Press, 2001. [ Links ]

______, After Neoliberalism. What Next for Latin America?, Michigan University Press, Ann Arbor, MI, 1999. [ Links ]

______, “Capital Market Crises: Liberalisation, Fixed Exchange Rates and Market Driven Destabilisation”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, no. 22(6), November, 1998, pp. 663-676. [ Links ]

Vives, X., “External Discipline and Financial Stability”, European Economic Review, no. 46, 2002, pp. 821-828. [ Links ]

Wood, A., “Openness and Wage Inequality in Developing Countries: The Latin American Challenge to East Asian Conventional Wisdom”, World Bank Economic Review, no. 11(1), 1997, pp. 33-57. [ Links ]

Received: June 2003; Accepted: August 2003

Creative Commons License This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License