Resumo

ESPINAL DE LA CRUZ, Alfredo. Analysis of informality in Peru, 2007-2021. Carta econ. reg. [online]. 2025, vol.38, n.136, pp.175-217.  Epub 05-Fev-2026. ISSN 2683-2852.  https://doi.org/10.32870/cer.v0i136.7929.

This article addresses informality, whose labor dimension quantitatively exceeds the amount of formal employment. It is linked not only to traditional macroeconomic variables but also to regulatory quality. The study analyzes its determining factors, territorial interrelation across the 24 regions of Perú, and highlights the state’s influence in reversing it, assessing its impact according to specifically regional characteristics in both the short and long term. It´s posits that informality decreases with increases in per capita gdp, formal employment, regulatory quality, public spending, electricity consumption, and industry. This hypothesis is tested using an exploratory correlational study methodology, applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and causal relationships through the Toda-Yamamoto approach. The findings indicate that informal labor decreases with increases per capita gdp, regulatory quality, and electricity consumption. Moreover, it is verified that the causal factors of informality are per capita gdp, regulatory quality, and public spending.

Palavras-chave : Perú; informality; territorial economy; ARDL model; Toda-Yamamoto; B22; C23; H30.

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