Abstract

RUIZ PORRAS, Antonio. Production, economic growth and international trade in Mexico: a diagnostic and prospective essay. Carta econ. reg. [online]. 2024, vol.36, n.133, pp.59-72.  Epub May 13, 2024. ISSN 2683-2852.  https://doi.org/10.32870/cer.v0i133.7891.

Here I propose that the link between economic growth and international trade is essential to understand the economic development of Mexico. For this reason, here I analyze econometrically quarterly time-series of production, imports and exports for the period 1993:Q1-2022:Q4. I use the results of the analysis to carry out a diagnostic and prospective exercise of the country’s economic situation. The conclusions of the exercise suggest that: 1) Mexico needs to strengthen and enforce their national institutions, laws and international agreements; 2) Mexico must face the challenges associated with an economic growth driven by the depreciation of the dollar, the big differentials between international and national interest rates and high domestic inflation, and 3) current public policies could induce a new episode of the “Dutch disease” in Mexico.

Keywords : economic growth; international trade; economic development; prospective; Mexico.

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