Resumen

ZAVALA LOPEZ, Pamela; YUQUILIMA CHITACAPA, José; ORDONEZ PARRA, Yanice Licenia  y  ZAMORA ZAMORA, Geovanny. Analysis of the Economic Factors Influencing Consumer Loan Delinquency in the Ecuadorian Private Banking Sector, 2020-2023. The Anáhuac j. [online]. 2025, vol.25, n.2, e3018.  Epub 26-Ene-2026. ISSN 2683-2690.  https://doi.org/10.36105/theanahuacjour.2025v25n2.3018.

The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of economic factors on consumer loan delinquency in private banks in Ecuador between 2020 and 2023, given the high risk these institutions face in consumer lending due to customers’ inability to repay their debts. For this analysis, an explanatory methodology with a quantitative approach is used, supported by descriptive statistics, Pearson’s correlation coefficient, and a longitudinal panel data design for the specified period. The findings reveal that the unemployment rate has a moderate-to-strong negative relationship with delinquency; inflation shows a weak and statistically non-significant correlation; and the gross domestic product (GDP) shows a negative correlation with delinquency. Additionally, moderate interrelationships are identified among the macroeconomic variables: a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment, and a positive one between inflation and the GDP. These results support the initial hypothesis that economic factors have a significant influence on consumer loan delinquency rates.

Palabras llave : Private banking; consumer credit; delinquency; economic factors; M21; G21; M41.

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