Objective

Educational lag (EL) affects human capital and significantly limits economic growth and development.

Methodology

Using a cloglog model, we prove the theoretical hypothesis that individuals’ rationality differs across socioeconomic strata: while individuals from lower strata are more likely to experience EL (4.3%), the opposite occurs for higher strata individual (-15.5%).

Results

We also found that, in the absence of any other variables, the probability of EL is as high as 20%; having children 24.3% (the highest in the model); and being male increases it by 9%.

Limitations

This work focuses on the factors that “pull” students away from formal educational institutions and the model only includes data from 2018.

Main findings

With scenario analysis, we demonstrate that a male from lower socioeconomic stratum, without access to healthcare and with children, faces 61% probability of EL, contrary to 37% for males with the same characteristics in the upper stratum.

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