Resumo

RODRIGUEZ ESPARZA, Luz Judith; ORTIZ LAZCANO, Dolly Anabel  e  LLAMAS VALLE, Mónica Fernanda. Work discouragement in Mexico, prediction analysis through demographic variables: 2005-2023. Anál. econ. [online]. 2025, vol.40, n.104, pp.67-85.  Epub 09-Set-2025. ISSN 2448-6655.  https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2025v40n104/rodriguez.

This article analyzes job discouragement in Mexico, a phenomenon that complements the understanding of unemployment, since the latter only considers those who are actively seeking employment and excludes those available for work who have stopped looking for employment, preventing a complete vision of the situation. The objective is to characterize the discouraged population through the analysis of demographic variables extracted from the National Occupation and Employment Survey (ENOE) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for the period 2005- 2023. A regression methodology based on machine learning algorithms is used to identify patterns and distinctive characteristics. The results show that sex is the most influential variable, with the rate of discouragement being higher among women, followed by age and educational level. An increase in demotivation among individuals with upper secondary and higher education is anticipated by 2035, thus providing a perspective for future labor policies.

Palavras-chave : Discouragement; Unemployment; Mexico.

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