Resumo

FLORES MARQUEZ, Héctor  e  JIMENEZ GOMEZ, Adrián. Sources of Economic Growth in Mexico: application of Bayesian Model Averaging. Anál. econ. [online]. 2024, vol.39, n.102, pp.107-133.  Epub 29-Out-2024. ISSN 2448-6655.  https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2024v39n102/flores.

The existence of heterogeneity in the literature that addresses the sources of economic growth, from an empirical point of view, generates a problem of uncertainty. The objective is to identify robust determinants of economic growth in Mexico by reducing the uncertainty of the model. To do so, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methodology is proposed, which analyzes many explanatory variables simultaneously. Thus, 28 possible determinants are considered in a sample that includes the 32 federal entities, to include the period2010-2021. The BMA constructs various possible combinations of models to extract the most robust determinants. Similarly, the instrumental variables BMA (IVBMA) is used to consider possible endogeneity problems. The results show a set of significant economic, institutional, and social variables to understand economic growth in Mexico.

Palavras-chave : Corruption; Determinants of economic growth; Average; Bayesian Models; Instrumental Variables.

        · resumo em Espanhol     · texto em Espanhol     · Espanhol ( pdf )