Abstract

MORALES-UBALDO, Yesica et al. Epidemiological behavior of bovine paralytic rabies in Mexico: Study period 2017-2023. Abanico vet [online]. 2026, vol.17, e2025-41.  Epub July 10, 2026. ISSN 2448-6132.  https://doi.org/10.21929/abavet2026.8.

The aim of this study was to determine the epidemiological behavior of bovine paralytic rabies (BPR) in Mexico during the period 2017-2023. Case information was obtained through the National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SIVE, according it’s acronyms in Spanish), from which the prevalence rate at the state level was estimated at the state level and clusters were identified using the SaTScan statistic. Temporal behavior was evaluated using endemic channels and a Seasonal Integrated Moving Average Autoregressive Model developed in the Python environment. During the study period, 2 791 cases of BPR were reported, the states with the highest prevalence rates were Nayarit (47.61), Quintana Roo (32.62), and Campeche (31.24). Spatial scanning detected three significant clusters; the one located in Nayarit had 13 times higher risk of presenting BPR cases. Temporally, a seasonal pattern was observed with endemic peaks in February and October. The SARIMA (2.1.0) (2.1.0)12 model forecasted 320 cases for 2024. BPR in Mexico shows variations across northern, central, and southern regions. Nayarit was the state with the highest prevalence and relative risk. This information could be used to strengthen prevention and control strategies in high-risk periods and areas.

Keywords : spatial distribution; prevalence; prediction.

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