Resumen

ZARAGOZA BADILLO, Jorge  y  MANSILLA CORONA, Ricardo. The dynamics of the EAP in the MZMC: Aplication of a dynamic nonlinear model. Inter disciplina [online]. 2017, vol.5, n.12, pp.57-94.  Epub 09-Dic-2024. ISSN 2448-5705.  https://doi.org/10.22201/ceiich.24485705e.2017.12.61465.

From the feedback between the migratory flows of the population and the supply of employment in the Metropolitan Zone of Mexico City (MZMC) was a pattern of growth by stages of the same with their respective migratory modalities, for which it helped to identify the zone as a complex system. Assuming that the zone is in the third stage of urban-urban and urban-suburban growth, which corresponds to the intrametropolitan migratory modality, and assuming that the main factor of migration is the search for a paid employment, we built a computer-programmed mathematical model for dynamic modeling of the economically active population (EAP) in the MZMC for the years 2000 and 2010, which depends on the growth rate of the economically active occupied population (EAOP), the rate of growth of the EAP itself, a dynamic migration balance between the center (Mexico City) and the periphery (conurbation zone) of the area. The model served to make the qualitative analysis of the phenomenon, short-term prediction of EAOP, the economically active unemployed population (EAUP) and the unemployment rate, plus some simulations. The spaces of possibilities of the evolution of the modeled phenomenon were obtained graphically. We conclude that the model helps to better understand a phenomenon that is complicated and complex and could be used as a guide for decision makers on population policy, migration policy and job creation.

Palabras llave : MZMC; EAP dynamics; urban growth pattern; intrametropolitan migration; complex system.

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