Resumo

MUNOZ ARMENTA, Aldo  e  SONNLEITNER, Willibald. The key to the historic gubernational alternation in Estado de Mexico in 2023: political and socioterritorial divergences of two discordant coalitions. Intersticios sociales [online]. 2024, n.28, 00002.  Epub 25-Nov-2024. ISSN 2007-4964.  https://doi.org/10.55555/is.28.600.

This work seeks to explain the historic political alternation at Estado de México in 2023 through the analysis of the effects of the contrasting ways in which the two alliances that competed for the governorship were integrated. Our hypothesis states that the key to the election lies in the diverging levels of cohesion of the contending coalitions. The common candidacy of the political alliance called Juntos Haremos Historia (integrated by Morena, Partido del Trabajo [PT], and Partido Verde Ecologista de México [PVEM]) was nominated long before the start of the contest without internal frictions, generating conditions to campaign with a centralized command and a remarkable territorial expansion of their electorates. The alliance Va Por el Estado de México failed to consolidate; her candidate had to overcome several difficulties to get the support of her party, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), and faced resistances from the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) and the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) leadership. These divisions delayed the start of her campaign and fragmented the territorial strategies to promote the vote in different commands. This resulted in a deep geographical reconfiguration of the PRI voters, the demobilization and retraction of the PAN electorates, the erosion and fracture of the PRD voters, as well as the dispersion of the alliance electorates.

Palavras-chave : subnational democratization; electoral alternation; party fragmentation; coalitions; electoral geography; spatial analysis of voting.

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