Introduction

Reforestation and restoration of forest ecosystems are increasingly difficult with climate change.

Objective

Define seed transfer zones for reforestation in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve and the ‘Sembrando Vida’ program in the Meseta Purépecha to mitigate climate change.

Materials and methods

Maps were generated to visualize where the ideal climate conditions for reforestation are projected to occur (RCP 4.5 scenario, 2050) at different sites using seedlings collected in delimited areas under a reference climate (1961-1990). A climate zone system was used (based on the temperature of the coldest month and an aridity index) and layers of suitable climatic habitat for Pinus pseudostrobus and Abies religiosa for the reference (1961-1990) and projected (2060 decade) period.

Results and discussion

The areas to be reforested will be warmer in the future, requiring seed from sites, on average, 3 °C warmer. A reduction of approximately 50 % of the area of climatically favorable habitat for P. pseudostrobus and A. religiosa was estimated. This reduction occurs at the lower altitudinal limit called the 'xeric limit’; therefore, it will be necessary to replace them with species adapted to warmer sites.

Conclusions

Moving seed sources from warmer (+3 °C) and drier sites to currently wetter and cooler planting sites is recommended. This provides a useful tool for deciding the seed source under adaptive forest management facing climate change.

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