Abstract

RAMIREZ GARCIA, Alex Ricardo et al. Spatial modeling of the conservation state and future scenarios in Eastern Tabasco, Mexico. Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales [online]. 2025, vol.16, n.92, pp.81-108.  Epub Feb 06, 2026. ISSN 2007-1132.  https://doi.org/10.29298/rmcf.v16i92.1573.

Land use change in Eastern Tabasco (ET) was modeled using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) for the ecological sustainability module of the TerrSet liberaGIS® software, covering the period 2000-2019. In addition, a probabilistic and spatial scenario (2030) was created using Markov chains and Cellular automata. The results indicated that during 2000 and 2019, agricultural and forest uses dominated, together accounting for 60 %. The rest of the land cover types covered a small area: water bodies and wetlands (7.9 %), evergreen rain forest (5 %), medium evergreen and semi-evergreen forest (2.4 %), lowland floodplain forest (2.6 %), and fallow lands (14.8 %). The spatial projection to the year 2030 pointed to a slight increase in agricultural use (60.3 %), human settlements (1.5 %), and oil palm plantations (2.1 %). Although productive activities will continue to dominate, high, medium, and low forests will remain stable at 5.2, 2.8, and 2.6 %, respectively, contrary to the situation of water bodies and wetlands, which will continue to lose significant areas, as indicated by the spatial projection. In order to preserve the remaining forests and those wetlands that still exist, it is important that ecological zoning plans have clear criteria for ecological regulation and a vision of sustainable development. Likewise, conservation, restoration and sustainable use of the Usumacinta Canyon Flora and Fauna Protection Area and the Wanhá Biosphere Reserve must be strengthened.

Keywords : Agricultural activities; cellular automata; Markov chains; land use change modeler; forest plantations; evergreen rain forest.

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