Resumen

DURAN PUGA, Noé; GONZALEZ EGUIARTE, Diego Raymundo; MARTINEZ SIFUENTES, José Ángel  y  PRADO LOPEZ, Miguel. Spatial modeling of Guazuma ulmifolia Lam. in the face of climate change in Mexico. Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales [online]. 2025, vol.16, n.87, pp.153-175.  Epub 26-Mayo-2025. ISSN 2007-1132.  https://doi.org/10.29298/rmcf.v16i87.1510.

Guazuma ulmifolia grows in tropical and warm-humid areas of Latin America. It has good forage qualities and is fast-growing; it offers palatable leaves, good nutritional quality for livestock and the ability to produce forage and fruits during the dry season. The objective of this study was to model the areas with probable environmental suitability and the possible modifications due to climate change for Guazuma ulmifolia in Mexico. Using MaxEnt, and based on 25 bioclimatic variables and images of altitude, slope and soil texture, the distribution of the species was modeled for 1961-2010 (reference climatology) and for 2041-2060 (2050). The climatic data for the first period were obtained from the Agroclimatic Information System (Siamexca), and for the future scenario (2050) an ensemble model was used, derived from eleven general circulation models from WorldClim. The results showed that the variables that contribute most to the environmental suitability of the species are the extreme minimum temperature, the precipitation of the warmest quarter, the thermal oscillation and the maximum temperature of summer; the best areas are located in the Yucatan Peninsula, the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, coastal areas of the Pacific Ocean from Chiapas state to the South of Sonora state and coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico, from Tabasco state to the South of Tamaulipas state. Climate change will promote a dynamic expansion of areas with high environmental suitability that in the current scenario are of medium environmental suitability, mainly in Central and Northern Mexico.

Palabras llave : Environmental suitability; ecological descriptors; Guazuma ulmifolia Lam.; MaxEnt; distribution models; Siamexca.

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