Resumen

SANTILLAN FERNANDEZ, Alberto et al. Potential areas of Brosimum alicastrum Sw. and its variability facing climate change scenarios. Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales [online]. 2025, vol.16, n.87, pp.48-71.  Epub 26-Mayo-2025. ISSN 2007-1132.  https://doi.org/10.29298/rmcf.v16i87.1507.

The objective of this study was to identify the regions in Mexico with the highest abundance of Brosimum alicastrum, as well as the edaphoclimatic and physiographic patterns that determine its current and future natural distribution. For this purpose, abundance, ecological niche, and climate change models were used, by means of geographic information system tools. This allowed the determination of the factors conditioning the natural coverage of the species in different regions of the country, and the establishment of a basis for its silvicultural management. Five regions were identified with the highest abundance of the species: Yucatán Peninsula, Isthmus, Lacandona, Western and Huasteca. The main factor determining the current distribution of Brosimum alicastrum is altitude, being more abundant in regions below 400 m. As altitude increases, its abundance decreases. The climate change scenarios were discouraging, indicating a possible total disappearance of the species' coverage in the Yucatan Peninsula region, where it is currently most abundant. Extreme variations between day and night temperatures, along with rainfall instability, will be the main factors conditioning the future natural distribution of the species in Mexico. However, new potentially suitable areas were identified for the species at altitudes above 400 m. These results can be considered as a basis for improving the forestry management of the species by region, considering the conditions that will affect its natural development in the future.

Palabras llave : Ramón tree; maximum entropy; ecological niche; geographic information system; bioclimatic variables; WorldClim.

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