Resumen

DOMINGUEZ-LOPEZ, Dora Eloísa; GONZALEZ-ESTRADA, Adrián; MARTINEZ-DAMIAN, Miguel Ángel  y  REYNA-IZAGUIRRE, Diana América. Fluctuations and risks of staple crops in Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2026, vol.17, n.1, e3941.  Epub 24-Abr-2026. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v17i1.3941.

Agricultural production is highly volatile, due to climatic, economic, and political factors, generating risk and uncertainty for producers and institutions. Such volatility has high economic costs and, in extreme events, can mean considerable losses. This research aimed to identify fluctuations in the production of staple crops in Mexico (corn, beans, wheat, and rice) during the 1993-2022 period, as well as their cyclical patterns and empirical regularities. Econometric time series models, the Hodrick-Prescott dynamic filter, and stationarity and cointegration tests were applied. The production cycles of staple crops are of medium length and exhibit a weakly negative correlation with total GDP. Corn and wheat have less variability, whereas beans and rice have greater variability. Such fluctuations increase risks and production costs. In order to strengthen food security, it is recommended to implement risk insurance and coverage policies, as well as strategies that mitigate production volatility.

Palabras llave : Hodrick-Prescott dynamic filter; staple crop production cycles; stationarity and cointegration.

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