Resumen

SANDOVAL-ROMERO, Fermín; MARTINEZ-DAMIAN, Miguel Ángel; ALTAMIRANO-CARDENAS, J. Reyes  y  VALDIVIA-ALCALA, Ramón. Climate change and sugarcane yield at the Tres Valles sugar mill. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2025, vol.16, n.7, e3855.  Epub 13-Feb-2026. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v16i7.3855.

The sugarcane agribusiness is important for food sovereignty in Mexico, but climate change affects its production and yield. This study analyzed how climatic variables and prices impact sucrose yield in fresh cane at the Tres Valles mill, Veracruz, from 1995 to 2022, using a model of two simultaneous equations. The objective was to analyze to what extent climatic variables and respective relevant prices affect the yield of sucrose in cane, expressed in its equivalent of fresh cane, in order to quantify the magnitude of this impact. The results show that thermal oscillation has the greatest positive impact (elasticity of 1.01), whereas solar radiation has the greatest negative impact (elasticity of -2.06). Carbon dioxide emissions have a moderate positive effect (elasticity of 0.78) and precipitation has a smaller positive impact (elasticity of 0.17). The index of prices of cane sugar shows a positive elasticity of 0.96, while the wholesale price of standard sugar has a negative elasticity of -0.2. It was concluded that this type of study provides valuable information on the sensitivity of sucrose yield to climatic and economic factors, useful for mitigating climate change.

Palabras llave : climatological normals; distorted prices; Gauss-Markov theorem; sucrose in fresh cane.

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