Resumen

CRUZ-GONZALEZ, Alejandro et al. Effects of climate change on reference evapotranspiration and their impact on corn production. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2025, vol.16, n.3, e3379.  Epub 12-Ago-2025. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v16i3.3379.

The effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ET0) in the Atlacomulco Rural Development District was evaluated; it is considered one of the most important variables in the management of water resources and the programming of agricultural irrigation. The climate change scenarios were projected using the general circulation model, HadGEM2-ES, with two representative concentration trajectories, 4.5 and 8.5, for two time horizons, 2021-2040 and 2041-2060, using the LARS-WG software; subsequently, the ET0 was determined with the Ref-ET program to finally model the effective precipitation, the crop evapotranspiration, and the irrigation requirement for corn crops with the CROPWAT software of FAO. The results show that, during the base period 1985-2020, ET0 ranges from 3.93 to 4.17 mm day-1; RCP 4.5 projects an increase of up to 2.6 and 4.1%, whereas RCP 8.5 an increase of 4.2 and 7.4%, respectively, for both horizons; this increase is reflected on the effective precipitation, crop evapotranspiration, and irrigation requirement towards the four scenarios; the most vulnerable areas are the southeast and northwest. Through the variables analyzed, it was possible to identify that the effective precipitation is not sufficient to meet the evapotranspiration demands of the corn crop, so it is necessary to cover the irrigation requirement with some water input. The data obtained can be used to generate adaptation and mitigation strategies to improve the efficiency of water use in the Atlacomulco Rural Development District and propose agricultural management alternatives.

Palabras llave : crop evapotranspiration; CROPWAT; effective precipitation; irrigation requirement; LARS-WG.

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