Resumen

REYES-SANTIAGO, Ester et al. The rice market in Mexico: what factors determine it?. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2024, vol.15, n.8, e3566.  Epub 20-Mayo-2025. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v15i8.3566.

Rice is a basic cereal in the diet of Mexicans; currently, Mexico imports large quantities to meet domestic demand. This work aimed to analyze the factors affecting the rice market in Mexico, as well as to measure the effect of different price levels. A simultaneous equation model consisting of a supply equation, a demand equation, and three price transmission equations and an identity of foreign trade balance was estimated for the period from 1999 to 2021. The results indicate that the supply and demand of rice respond inelastically to its price. The factors that most affected supply were temperature, the real rural average price of corn, and the availability of water for irrigation, with elasticities of 1.57, -1 and 0.24, respectively; likewise, the factors that affected demand were per capita income, real consumer prices of eggs and beans, with elasticities of 0.98, -0.48 and -0.37. An inelastic elasticity coefficient of 0.06 was found between the real import price and the real wholesale price; the latter modified the average rural price by 0.24 and the real consumer price by 0.7. For this reason, it is recommended to allocate complementary support to the agricultural sector, such as the programs of fertilizers, sowing life, technical advice, credit and irrigation infrastructure supports, among others; this measure will increase domestic production and gradually reduce rice imports.

Palabras llave : demand; elasticity; simultaneous equations; supply.

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