Abstract

GARCIA-MATAMOROS, Mauricio; GARCIA-SANCHEZ, Roberto Carlos; GARCIA-MATA, Roberto  and  SANGERMAN-JARQUIN, Dora Ma.. Determinants of corn demand in Mexico, 1970-2020. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2024, vol.15, n.7, e3325.  Epub May 27, 2025. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v15i7.3325.

Corn is one of the most demanded agricultural products due to its importance in the human nutritional diet and the livestock sector and because it is the raw material for more than four thousand products. In 2020, Mexico ranked fourth worldwide in the consumption of this grain. In the 1970-2020 period, corn’s demand and production had an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 3.03% and 2.28%. Corn imports were used to satisfy the demand; these had an AAGR of 6.27%. The objectives were to identify the main variables that determine the demand for corn grain in Mexico and to evaluate the sensitivity of the quantity demanded to changes in exogenous variables. Annual data were used in the estimation of three multiple linear regression models. The determinants of demand were analyzed through the magnitude and sign of the elasticities. The results showed that the demand for corn is inelastic; the price elasticities were -0.7529, -0.7994, and -0.7552. The income elasticities were 0.516, 0.3007, and 0.5016; therefore, the corn grain was classified as a necessary normal good. The cross-price elasticity with respect to the price of beans was -0.0871; this grain was cataloged as weak complementary. The cross elasticities with respect to sorghum (0.1079), rice (0.2568), and wheat (0.1755) showed that there is a weak substitution of corn with these products. The models and elasticities were congruent and consistent with the theory of demand; in addition, appropriate and statistically significant forecasts were obtained.

Keywords : consumption; elasticities; multiple linear regression.

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