Abstract

PALOMEQUE DE LA CRUZ, Miguel Ángel et al. Geomatic models based in the transition for spatial analysis in Villahermosa, Tabasco. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2017, vol.8, n.2, pp.253-267. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v8i2.48.

The excessive periurbanization of the city of Villahermosa, located in the lower basin of the Grijalva River, has impacts do the natural system since the last 40 years. To analyze the spatial dynamics of Villahermosa and its effects and alternatives, were constructed probability matrices and scenarios of change in land use by the modeler changes ground (MCT), chains of Markov and cellular automata. During 1984 and 2008, the MCT showed the increase in urban areas use (4 458 ha) and grassland (11 239 ha), which induced the decrease tree vegetation (1 893 ha) and wetlands (2 244 ha). The projections to 2020, 2030 and 2040 carried out with Markov and CA-Markov predicted continuation, both d increasing the area of urban use (6 058, 6 137 and 6 824 ha) and grassland (10 971, 10 922 and 10 705 ha), and the decrease of hedges tree vegetation (756, 722 andy 444 ha) and wetlands (1 965, 1 997 and 1 888 ha). This change of projections and land use in Villahermosa show the virtual disappearance of wetlands and tree vegetation, which highlights the need to create land reserves as stated in the program of ecological management.

Keywords : cellular automata; Markov chains; modeler changes on the ground.

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