Resumo

ZARAZUA-VILLASENOR, Patricia et al. Impacts of climate change on the maize agroclimatology in Ciénega de Chapala, Jalisco. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2011, vol.2, n.spe2, pp.351-363. ISSN 2007-0934.

The objectives of this study were to estimate future climatic scenarios for the Spring-Summer cycle in the Ciénega de Chapala region in Jalisco, Mexico; estimate the impact of the scenarios on agro-climatic and phenological parameters of the maize crop; and climatic scenarios on water requirements of maize in the studied area. Databases series were available of 1977-2006 series from the stations of the National Water Commission (CONAGUA) and the database of average temperature anomalies and, the precipitation for the period 2007-2099, in the A2 greenhouse gases emission scenario. Using trigonometric models, the future values of maximum and minimum temperatures and thermal oscillation were estimated. An adjustment of the Hargreaves model was performed to the pan evaporation model in order to estimate the evapotranspiration. For the estimation of the phenological variables, the average thermal requirements of some commercial varieties were considered and, Gompertz models were used to estimate the days with temperatures beyond the threshold of the maize crop. In the late XXI century there will be an increase of 6.5 °C of maximum temperatures, 3.6 °C of mean temperatures and, 0.09 °C of minimum temperatures, with respect to the current values. The thermal oscillation will have an increase in its values with a slight slope, indicating that, in the future there will be more extreme thermal conditions than today. The growing season in the wet period will experience a shortening and, the heat units required for the maize crop will be covered faster; day and nighttime temperatures will be increased as well, impacting the processes of photosynthesis and respiration in this species; an increase of the number of days with temperatures above the crop threshold is expected, causing the plants to experience greater periods of time under heat stress; due to the shortening of the crop cycle, the plants' water demand will also decrease.

Palavras-chave : Zea Mays L.; agro-climatic parameters; climate change; production technology.

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