Abstract

SOTO ZAZUETA, Irvin Mikhail. Determinantes de la alternancia política en México, 1980-2009: un análisis econométrico a nivel de estados. CONfines relacion. internaci. ciencia política [online]. 2012, vol.8, n.15, pp.77-98. ISSN 1870-3569.

The political turn over all levels of government in Mexico, it's a phenomenon that has been experimented since late 1980. However, the alternation at the State level is far from a homogeneous process. In this study we use economic variables to explain the political phenomenon at State level in Mexico. We used an econometric panel data model with discrete dependent variablefor the period 1980-2009. Wefound a relation in U-shaped inverse between income inequality and political alternation. Furthemore, We found that political alternation is more likely to occur in states with fair electoral rules, high educational grades and international trade flows.

Keywords : political alternation; democracy; income inequality; panel data; probit.

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