Abstract

BAGLIANI, María Camila; VIA DO PICO, Gisela Mariel; SOLIS-NEFFA, Viviana G.  and  MORENO, Ercilia María Sara. Exploratory analysis of the environmental amplitude and ecological requirements to identify potential sampling and cultivation areas for Elionurus muticus (Poaceae) in South America. Rev. Mex. Biodiv. [online]. 2025, vol.96, e965555.  Epub Nov 11, 2025. ISSN 2007-8706.  https://doi.org/10.22201/ib.20078706e.2025.96.5555.

Elionurus muticus has a high industrial potential and production capacity. However, information on its ecological requirements is lacking. Here we analyze its current and future potential distribution in South America using ecological niche modelling to establish sampling strategies, identify optimal growing regions, and assess the impact of climate change on its distribution. A potential distribution of 4,573,895.843 km2 was estimated. The areas with the highest probability of occurrence were the northwest of the Uruguayan Savannah, Humid Chaco, Campos and Malezales, north of the Paraná Flooded Savannah, southwest of the Espinal and southeast of the Humid Pampa. The bioclimatic variables showed a greater amplitude compared to the edaphic variables. Minimum temperature of the coldest month, precipitation of the warmest month and soil pH showed the highest percentage contribution to the model. In the 12 combinations of future scenarios analyzed, the distribution remained stable. Most variables showed uniform ranges of values. The southwest of the Cerrado, west of the Uruguayan Savannah, and Campos and Malezales stood out as highly potential and stable areas, suitable for sampling, cultivation and efficient utilization of E. muticus in South America.

Keywords : Potential distribution; Climate change; Niche modeling; Land cover.

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