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Economía UNAM

versão impressa ISSN 1665-952X


MIRANDA MEDINA, Adriana; HERNANDEZ ORTIZ, Juan  e  RETES-MANTILLA, Rogel Fernando. Effect of a tariff and depreciation of the peso on Mexican fruit exports by applying an almost ideal demand system (AIDS). Economía UNAM [online]. 2020, vol.17, n.49, pp.132-146.  Epub 22-Dez-2020. ISSN 1665-952X.

The fruit subsector is an important activity in the Mexican agricultural sector. In 2017 agri-food exports were 32,583 million dollars with a parity of 19.03 pesos per dollar of which avocado (Persea americana spp), grape (Vitis wine spp), mango (Manguifera indica spp), lemon (Citrus latifolia tanaka spp) and watermelon (Citrullus lanatus spp) represent a percentage of 40%. This fruit basket is analyzed with an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) in order to estimate the elasticities of the selected export fruits; the expected changes in demand were estimated with a change in the peso/dollar ratio and a imposed 25% tariff. The parameters in the model were estimated with the restrictions of homogeneity and symmetry; all of them were significant at 5%, and there was no autocorrelation at 5%. The Marshallian and Hicksian price elasticity of demand, the cross elasticity and the expenditure elasticity obtained were consistent with their specific values, classifying the analyzed fruits as inelastic goods. In a scenario of 25% tariff imposition, the exported volumen to the US of avocado, lemon, mango, watermelon, and grape would decrease by 11, 10, 5, 6, and 3% respectively. Similarly, in an exchange scenario (peso/dollar) impact will be favorable of 14, 12, 6, 7 and 3% for the fruits analyzed in this basket of goods. If the T-Mec agreements are maintained, the exports of duty-free mexican fruits wil improve and the economy will mantain a surplus in this sector.

Palavras-chave : Agricultural And Natural Resource Economics; Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices; Agriculture in International Trade; Q; Q11; Q17.

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