Abstract

MORENO, Alejandro  and  MENDEZ, Patricia. Party Identification in the 2000 and 2006 Presidential Elections in Mexico. Polít. gob [online]. 2007, vol.14, n.1, pp.43-75. ISSN 1665-2037.

In this article, we analyze the patterns of change in party identification observed in the 2000 and 2006 presidential elections in Mexico. Based primarily on national exit poll data, we focus on three observed and interrelated phenomena: first, there was a slight decline in the level of partisanship observed not only among voters who turned out, but also among the electorate at large. Secondly, party identification remains one of the most important explanatory variables of the vote in Mexico, but partisan voting was slightly weaker in 2006, as evidenced by the levels of cross-over voting and split-ticket voting in each election. Finally, a multivariate analysis based on these data shows significant changes in the social and ideological composition of party identification, providing evidence of how partisan realignment among segments of the Mexican electorate is taking place. From 2000 to 2006, formerly strong PRI identifiers, such as women and rural voters, adopted identification with either PAN or PRD. Our analysis also documents transformations such as leftist PAN voters changing to PRD and highly educated voters becoming increasingly independent.

Keywords : cross-over voting; split-ticket voting; partisan vote; party identification; realignment; dealignment; Mexican elections.

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