Objetive

To evaluate the association between delta variations in the parameters of 2 sinusal ECG with atrial fibrillation (AF) onset.

Method

Retrospective cohort of 9,975 adult patients and members of the prepaid system at Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires from Argentina, who had at least 2 sinusal ECG between 2006 and 2011. Population was followed up for detection of AF. All measurements and electrocardiographic deltas (differences between the 2 ECG) were standardized. Hazard ratio (HR) was estimated for the development of AF for each delta of the different ECG parameters using a Cox regression model.

Results

During a median follow up of 3.5 years, 189 patients (1.89%) developed AF. Heart rate delta, ST interval delta and P wave amplitude were predictors of AF. Hazard ratio Adjusted for clinical characteristics and ECGbasal values was 0,86 (CI95%: 0.75-0.98, p = 0.024) for heart rate delta, 1.12 (CI95%: 0.98-1.27, p = 0.082) for ST interval delta and 1.21 (CI95%: 1.05-1.38, p = 0.006) for P wave amplitude delta.

Conclusion

Differences of heart rate and P wave amplitude between ECG's measurements may predict AF, independently of clinical features and ECGbasal values.

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