Resumen

HERAS-SANCHEZ, María del Carmen et al. Computational Analysis of Monterrey Sardine (Sardinops Sagax) Responses to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Chlorophyll-a (Chla) Variability in the Gulf of California, 1998-2015. Comp. y Sist. [online]. 2024, vol.28, n.4, pp.1941-1953.  Epub 25-Mar-2025. ISSN 2007-9737.  https://doi.org/10.13053/cys-28-4-5216.

This study employs advanced computational techniques to conduct a spatiotemporal analysis of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla) in the Gulf of California (GC) from 1998 to 2015. The analysis uses satellite imagery with 4 km resolution from AVHRR, MODIS-Aqua, and SeaWiFS sensors, which were processed through Idrisi Terrset 2020’s geospatial modeling tools. Key computational methods include raster image processing, reclassification for precise geographic delineation, and statistical modeling using the Theil-Sen estimator and multiple linear regression techniques within the Earth Trends Modeler module. These methods enabled the generation of robust spatiotemporal models, correlations, and trend analyses of environmental variables like SST and Chla. Data on Monterey sardine (Sardinops sagax) catches, categorized by fishing zones, were also analyzed, revealing a declining trend, with sardine catches decreasing by 16.5 tons per month on average and dropping from over 60% of total small pelagic catches in 2007-2010 to just 2% in 2014-2015. The region of large islands (zones III, IV, and V) was identified as the most productive, contributing 44% to total sardine production. A significant negative correlation ($r=-0.81$) was found between SST and Chla, indicating that higher SSTs result in lower Chla concentrations. Monterey sardine catches also responded to environmental changes with a two-month lag, showing correlations of $r=-0.52$ with SST and $r=-0.57$ with Chla. The comprehensive computational approach, which included linear and nonlinear modeling, provided critical insights into the dynamics between environmental variables and sardine population trends, emphasizing the importance of ongoing monitoring and adaptive fisheries management in the face of climate change.

Palabras llave : Gulf of California; SST; Chla; sardina Monterrey; sardinops Sagax.

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