Resumo

RAMIREZ SIERRA, Gabriel Darío; GONZALEZ MARTINEZ, Alayn Alejandro; VILLEGAS ROJAS, Felipe Francisco  e  MONROY CRUZ, Miguel Ángel. Impact of nearshoring on Mexico’s economic activity (2020-2023). Prob. Des [online]. 2025, vol.56, n.220, pp.125-152.  Epub 08-Jun-2025. ISSN 0301-7036.  https://doi.org/10.22201/iiec.20078951e.2025.220.70230.

This paper assesses the impact of nearshoring on manufacturing, employment and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico between 2020 and 2023. Nearshoring is attributed to factors such as the trade conflict between the United States and China, the disruption of supply chains due to the Covid-19 health crisis and the entry into force of the Mexico-United States-Canada Agreement (T-MEC). This last event is considered the beginning of nearshoring, and its impact is analyzed using the Generalized Synthetic Controls (GSC) methodology. The results show that the analyzed entities experience an increase of 5.2 percentage points (pp) in manufacturing production and 11.4 pp in FDI, while the effect on employment is positive but not statistically significant.

Palavras-chave : macroeconomics; econometrics; estimation; trade and labor market interactions; regional economic activity; B22; C01; C13; F16; R11.

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