Abstract

LUIS-ROJAS, Samuel  and  GARCIA-SANCHEZ, Roberto Carlos. Effect of high fructose prices on mexican cane sugar. Rev. fitotec. mex [online]. 2025, vol.48, n.4, pp.433-441.  Epub Mar 05, 2026. ISSN 0187-7380.  https://doi.org/10.35196/rfm.2025.4.433.

The sugarcane product system represents a significant economic activity in Mexico. Sugar is the primary product of this agro-industry, generating between 500,000 direct and 2.4 million indirect jobs in rural areas across 267 municipalities in Mexico. The objectives of this study were to calculate the seasonal index for the monthly wholesale prices of standard cane sugar in Mexico (MWPS), and to assess the cause-effect relationship (temporary or permanent) between the average annual wholesale price of high-fructose corn syrup placed in Mexico (AWPS) on the average annual wholesale prices of standard cane sugar in Mexico (AWPCS). The mean percentage methodology was employed for MWPS, while vector autoregression (VAR) was utilized for AWPS and AWPCS, with data from the period 1994 to 2023 for all three variables. MWPS fluctuated around 10 %, with high prices between July and December. Parameters of VAR model were estimated using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method in EViews®. The estimated model indicates that with an increase in AWPCS in Mexico, the AWPS decrease from the second year, with temporary effects in subsequent periods. The Wald test of causality/exogeneity of VAR Granger blocks indicated that the AWPS series does not cause in the Granger sense to the AWPCS variable and vice versa. It is concluded that the MWPS exhibit high price seasonality from July to December, and the VAR model demonstrates that PAMJ do not have a positive and temporary impact on PAMA. That is, the behavior of AWPS does not exert significant effects as an external factor in the conformation of AWPCS.

Keywords : Agricultural planning; price volatility; sweeteners; time series; VAR models.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )