Abstract

RAVAUX, David Richard; ZUNIGA ESTRADA, Magin  and  MORALES, Erika. Factors Determining the Probability for Irregular Central American Migrants to Reside in the United States. Frontera norte [online]. 2025, vol.37, e2379.  Epub July 29, 2025. ISSN 2594-0260.  https://doi.org/10.33679/rfn.v1i1.2379.

This article aims to study the factors that have favored the irregular entry and residence in the United States of migrants from the Northern Triangle of Central America during the period 2016-2019. The probabilities of success were estimated using data from Mexico’s Encuesta sobre Migración en la Frontera Sur (Southern Border Migration Survey), and a binomial logistic regression model was run to test the four hypotheses posed around the factors that determine the success of migrants in that journey. The results show that individual characteristics such as socio-demographic traits (country of origin, gender, age, education level), English language proficiency, possession of network capital, and migrants’ personal decisions significantly determine whether or not they will succeed in reaching and residing in the United States.

Keywords : irregular migration; probability; Northern Triangle; Central America; United States.

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