Abstract

DIAZ GONZALEZ, Eliseo  and  MENDOZA SANCHEZ, Mario Alberto. Crisis y recuperación económica en los estados de la frontera norte: Un análisis de los ciclos económicos. Estud. front [online]. 2012, vol.13, n.25, pp.89-130. ISSN 2395-9134.

This paper analyzes the prospect of economic recovery and the comovement of regional and national economy with a focus on business cycles theory in 19972010. We estimate the trend and cycle of composition of growth in each entity with the Hodrick-Prescott filter and an autoregressive model, using employment data. The evidence shows that Nuevo Leon has the capacity to return to its trend growth, but Baja California and Chihuahua has less possibility. Finally, shortterm dynamics of these economies shows that the degree of synchronization with the national economy seems to play for the recovery of growth.

Keywords : business cycles; economic recuperation; northern border.

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