Resumen

CARMONA-MARTINEZ, Jorge Luis; RAMIREZ, Andrés María  y  HERNANDEZ-VAZQUEZ, Maricela. Vulnerability of Rainfed Maize (Zea mays L.) to Climate Variability in the Municipalities of Atltzayanca and Huamantla, State of Tlaxcala. Terra Latinoam [online]. 2025, vol.43, e2351.  Epub 09-Abr-2026. ISSN 2395-8030.  https://doi.org/10.28940/terralatinoamericana.v43i.2351.

Rainfed agriculture faces recurring threats that affect its productivity year after year. Soil moisture and temperature are essential factors for the proper germination, growth, and development of maize. Climatic events such as droughts and frosts, resulting from climate variability, represent the main risks, as they cause direct damage, increase the vulnerability of the agricultural system, and significantly affect production and, consequently, the economic stability of local producers. The state of Tlaxcala has three rainfed maize-producing regions, with the Oriente Huamantla region being the most important. This region comprises 13 municipalities, among which Atltzayanca and Huamantla stand out due to their higher production levels. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the degree of vulnerability of rainfed maize cultivation to extreme climatic events in the municipalities of Atltzayanca and Huamantla. A mixed methodology was employed, integrating quantitative and qualitative approaches. Precipitation and minimum temperature variables for the period 1980-2021 were analyzed together with rainfed maize yield data by calculating means and standard deviations in order to establish correlations and determine the degree of vulnerability. Additionally, 182 questionnaires were administered, and group interviews were conducted in the selected municipalities. The results identified different degrees of vulnerability, with Huamantla being vulnerable to drought, exhibiting a 20% probability of obtaining low yields under this climatic event, as well as other relevant factors that also affect crop performance, such as pest incidence and the use of agrochemicals. These findings highlight the need for future research adopting a holistic approach that integrates additional risk factors, including soil conditions, economic context, farmer training, seed type, and the increasing deterritorialization associated with agribusiness.

Palabras llave : agrochemicals; climate change; pests; local producers.

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