Abstract

TORRE CANTALAPIEDRA, Eduardo  and  CALVA SANCHEZ, Luis Enrique. The Decline in Deportations in Mexico: Migrant Protection or Operational Constraints?. Rev. mex. cienc. polít. soc [online]. 2026, vol.71, n.256, pp.441-465.  Epub Aug 13, 2026. ISSN 0185-1918.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.2448492xe.2026.256.90599.

This article examines the decline in the expulsion rate within Mexico’s migration control system during the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024), combining empirical analysis with theoretical debates on migration control, securitization, and the governance of transit migration. Drawing on administrative records from the National Migration Institute, transparency requests, and bibliographic and press review, the study documents a sharp reduction in deportations amid an unprecedented rise in detentions and increasing diversification of migrants’ countries of origin. The article contrasts two main explanatory frameworks: first, the argument that attributes this trend to the adoption of a human rights-oriented paradigm emphasizing alternatives to deportation; second, and central to this study, the claim that the declining expulsion rate is primarily driven by high economic costs, budgetary constraints, and operational and diplomatic challenges associated with deporting large and heterogeneous migrant populations. The findings suggest not a substantive humanitarian turn, but rather a reconfiguration of a securitized migration control regime under conditions of limited state capacity.

Keywords : migration control policies; transit migration; detentions; deportations; human rights.

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