Resumo

CUEVAS AHUMADA, Víctor Manuel. Housing prices and public insecurity in Mexico: perceptions, expectations, and crime exposure. Inv. Econ [online]. 2026, vol.85, n.337, pp.129-155.  Epub 31-Ago-2026. ISSN 0185-1667.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2026.337.95967.

This paper estimates several fixed-effects dynamic panel data models using data for 21 major cities over the period 2016Q1-2025Q2 to examine the effects of three indicators of public insecurity on housing prices: expected insecurity, perceived insecurity, and crime exposure. The evidence shows that all three measures have negative and statistically significant effects on housing price dynamics. When analyzing different city subsamples, we find that the marginal impact of insecurity is stronger in relatively safer cities and weaker in highly insecure cities, a pattern consistent with violence normalization or reduced housing-market sensitivity as insecurity rises. Moreover, in relatively safer cities, crime exposure becomes increasingly influential vis-à-vis perceptions and expectations of insecurity, showing that housing prices are more responsive to criminal and antisocial behaviors that can be seen or heard near people’s homes.

Palavras-chave : housing prices; public insecurity indicators; panel data models; violence-normalization effect.

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