Resumen

ZAVALETA GONZALEZ, Josué; VAZQUEZ MUNOZ, Juan Alberto  y  ZEMPOALTECATL MANCILLA, Ana Teresa. Industrial dynamics, trade liberalization, exchange rate, and public investment. Inv. Econ [online]. 2026, vol.85, n.337, pp.46-73.  Epub 31-Ago-2026. ISSN 0185-1667.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2026.337.95785.

Following the arguments of Kaldor (1968) and Ros (2014), the Mexican economy is trapped in a negative cumulative causation dynamic between industrial production and productivity. This paper analyses, both theoretically and econometrically, how to break this dynamic. The impacts of three variables that may exert an expansionary effect on both industrial production and productivity are evaluated: trade liberalization, the real exchange rate, and public investment. Using different theoretical approaches, it can be suggested that these three variables have both expansionary and contractionary effects, making empirical analysis essential to determine which predominates in the Mexican case. An ARDL model is used to estimate the long-run effects of these variables and the structural change associated with NAFTA’s implementation.

Palabras llave : industrial production; industrial productivity; trade liberalization; real exchange rate; public investment.

        · resumen en Español     · texto en Español     · Español ( pdf )