Abstract

ORTIZ VELASQUEZ, Samuel. Potential effects on trade and competitiveness of a tariff on Mexican exports to the United States. Inv. Econ [online]. 2025, vol.84, n.332, pp.5-34.  Epub Oct 27, 2025. ISSN 0185-1667.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2025.332.91060.

This article analyzes the economic effects of Donald Trump’s tariff policy in the United States on Mexico. It presents an updated review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of tariffs in a globalized economy. A statistical exercise is also conducted to estimate the immediate effects of a 25% ad valorem tariff on Mexican exports to the United States, product by product, assessing its impact on unit export value (with and without the tariff) and international competitiveness. The analysis is complemented by a discussion of the potential effects on investment and employment in Mexico. The results suggest that, in a globalized economy, the cost of the tariff would be absorbed primarily by importing companies and final consumers in the United States, resulting in price increases and a loss of competitiveness for the North American region vis-à-vis Asian countries. For Mexico, the threat of tariffs generates uncertainty, discourages investment, and weakens the potential for nearshoring.

Keywords : Ad valorem tariff; vertical specialization; export unit value; international competitiveness; nearshoring.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )