Resumen

BASURTO HERNANDEZ, Saúl  y  GALVAN VARGAS, Sandra. Determinants of the probability of economic loss in the Mexican agricultural sector. Inv. Econ [online]. 2024, vol.83, n.327, pp.80-113.  Epub 26-Jul-2024. ISSN 0185-1667.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2024.327.86398.

The purpose of this article is to estimate a discrete choice model to identify the main factors influencing the probability of getting losses in agriculture. To do that, we use data on 64,548 farms reporting revenues and costs in the Encuesta Nacional Agropecuaria. Using the location of each parcel within the farm, we match net revenues with long-term climate, short-term weather events, soil types, plot characteristics, water access, market access, and sociodemographic characteristics. The main results indicate that 45% of farms in the sample observe negative net revenues. Overall, the probability of getting losses increases when the farmer is a woman, recognizes himself as indigenous, has less education, uses oxen, uses less land (small-sized), has rainfed land, has ejidal land, or his agricultural fields are at high levels of altitude.

Palabras llave : Net revenues; agricultural; livestock; Logit model; Q10; Q12; Q14.

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