Abstract

LORIA, Eduardo; VALDEZ, Javier  and  TIRADO, Raúl. Estimation of the NAIRU for Mexico, 2002Q1-2018Q2. Inv. Econ [online]. 2019, vol.78, n.308, pp.39-62.  Epub Feb 20, 2020. ISSN 0185-1667.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2019.308.69621.

We estimate the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) for Mexico (2002Q1-2018Q2) with Ball and Mankiw’s (2002) methodology using the Generalized Method of Moments. We prove that, with this methodology, the calculation of NAIRU is more efficient than the one calculated with the HP filter. We show that: a) the Dot Com and the Great Recession crises have had real and lasting effects on the labor market; b) Mexico´s monetary policy has been stabilizing, and c) the relationship between unemployment and inflation has strengthened over the last years.

Keywords : NAIRU; unemployment gap; monetary policy; GMM; structural change.

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