SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.61 issue1Complejación de metales por sustancias húmicas acuáticas como proceso natural, tomando como caso de estudio el Lago de Xochimilco, Ciudad de México, México author indexsubject indexsearch form
Home Pagealphabetic serial listing  

Services on Demand

Journal

Article

Indicators

Related links

  • Have no similar articlesSimilars in SciELO

Share


Geofísica internacional

On-line version ISSN 2954-436XPrint version ISSN 0016-7169

Abstract

OLIVEIRA, Adriana Paulo de Sousa et al. Projection of Land Use To 2030 and Its Impacts on Water Availability in a Brazilian Sub-Basin: a LCM and SWAT Approach. Geofís. Intl [online]. 2022, vol.61, n.1, pp.66-87.  Epub Dec 02, 2022. ISSN 2954-436X.  https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2022.61.1.2189.

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can result in significant changes in a hydrographic basin flow regime. Future projections about LULC and its interference with water availability help to identify extreme events in advance and help propose appropriate management measures. Thus, this study aimed to make the LULC projection for the year 2030 for the Alto Rio Grande (ARG) sub-basin, located in Southeastern Brazil. This region was chosen because of its intense water resources use and for having recently faced water scarcity as result of prolonged droughts and inadequate water resources management. To identify the LULC trend for the year 2030, the Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used, the map obtained was inserted in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model previously calibrated and validated for the region’ environmental and climatic conditions. The ARG sub-basin was affected by heavy rains in 2011, which resulted in changes in the landscape due to landslides. This particularity of the region contributed to the projection of LULC for the year 2030 to present an increase in forest and pastures to the agricultural areas detriment. When evaluating the impacts of these changes in water availability, it was observed that the SWAT model presented, for the same rainfall conditions, a reduction in peak streamflows of up to 59% and a reduction in the average monthly flow of up to 63% in 2030 in relation to the LULC observed in 2017. Thus, this study provides an important contribution by identifying a considerable reduction in water availability. These results will help to formulate strategies for water resources management and the adoption of measures to promote water security in the region.

Keywords : land change modeler; projection flow; watershed modelling and water resources.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in English     · English ( pdf )