Background:

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and aquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a public health problem in Mexico. The publication of the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021 represents a valuable opportunity to assess the evolution of the epidemic in the country.

Objective:

To analyze the evolution of HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality in Mexico from 1995 to 2021.

Material and methods:

The HIV/AIDS burden was evaluated using incidence and mortality indicators, utilizing the estimates from the GBD 2021 from 1995 to 2021.

Results:

The age-standardized HIV incidence rate in Mexico increased by 64%, rising from 7.7 to 12.6 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. In contrast, the age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 30%, from 5.7 to 4.0 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Significant differences in incidence and mortality trends were observed across federal entities, age groups, and sexes.

Conclusions:

Despite the notable reduction in HIV/AIDS mortality, incidence has shown a sustained increase since 1995, especially among older adults and young people. These trends raise questions regarding the effectiveness of the preventive strategies implemented in Mexico over the past three decades.